The Real Impact of Climate Change (CC)

It is important to note first that climate change is not seasonal variations in weather conditions but rather a changing of the long term weather trends as a direct/indirect result of man's activities. In geologic terms, a decade is rather insignificant but a cursory glance at world events seems to be validating what climate gurus have been urging for decades.

Climate change is a real challenge to the long term sustainability, adaptability, stability and survivability of life on planet earth. The planet functions on an extremely complex and interrelated feedback mechanism which means that CC has economic, social, political and ecological consequences that may not be able to be predicted or planned for. There is also the potential for various tipping points to accelerate the process spurring on further climate change. Here is one micro example of the nature of CC. Adverse and unusual weather in North America leads to lower yields of wheat in the North and fruits in the South pushing food prices up. As countries battle with the global economic downturn and economies decline, they are faced with imported inflation causing a surge in interest rates which further contract weak economic growth creating more unemployment and general poverty as well as the potential for social unrest. The Amazon is now experiencing a one in a century drought for the second time in a decade. For the first time ever, in 2011 the Amazon will become a net producer rather than sink for COc emissions. This is simply a frightening scenario for global climate. Storms are greater, stronger, deserts are widening, rains are moving, and the general confusion of seasons and fruit growth patterns is likely to continue.

The fact is the CC cannot be ignored on any serious grounds. It is the greatest challenge of the 21st century and poses a challenge to every single life form on Earth. It needs to be addressed with the fervour becoming of the threat is poses and combated with a united effort by both MDCs and LDCs since no state large or small is immune to its effects. If states continue to ignore their obligation to themselves and other states in favour of selfish goals and myopic aspirations, there will simply be nothing left to fight for in coming decades. Let us hope that the scenario envisioned by Hollywood in the movie The Day After Tomorrow remains fiction and not fact into the 21st Century.  

Sneeze, sniffle,cough: Did anything change?

It is evident that the axiom "plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose" holds true whether in international relations or daily living. For many centuries humans have had to endure the scourge of diseases with nothing more than natural, God given resistance to ensure life from one day to the other. Then we got vaccines, pills, disinfectants, sanitizers and the like. Life was grand and pathogens were pushed into a corner. The sad truth is that in our drive to rid ourselves of diseases where we have overmedicated and oversanitized (Clorox and Lysol) to the hilt, we are actually creating drug resistant strains of HIV, tuberculosis and staph to name a few. Humans live in crowded cities, live in close proximity to birds and pigs, cover most habitable areas of the planet and have highly integrated and efficient global travel systems move millions of people every day. We have never been more at risk for a deadly global pandemic as we not only provoke the emergence of new strains of diseases but also create ripe conditions for it to spread beyond our control. One epidemiologist rightly predicted the emergence of a flu pandemic originating in China due to the close quarters humans share with birds and pigs causing flus to be transmitted from birds to pigs and pigs to humans (Note SARS and bird flu).

While the 20th Century has been celebrated as a dominance of man over pathogen, it is now evident that we have not and will never win that "war." We have, in many countries, improved health, life expectancy and infant mortality to the highest levels that we can logically expect. The paradox of our drugs and cleanliness is that children are increasingly hypersensitive and allergic to everyday substances (myself included), babies who took antibiotics suffer from ulcerative colitis as adults more than other children because they did not develop healthy intestinal flora and normal flus, colds, and cuts have taken on a sinister nature as our immune systems weaken and diseases strengthen. All these threaten to erode the gains made in the health of humans over the past century.

What can we do now that we have started the cycle of disease resistance? A harmless cut on the football field can kill, so can a cough contaminated with super TB. A little dirt supposedly never killed anyone but these days you never know so wash up with regular soap, get out more, breathe in the fresh air and let nature do its work. Peace out.